Mike Rende

May was a strong month for equities, despite geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns. Major indices reached record highs, supported by robust corporate earnings that were significantly beyond expectations. Gains broadened beyond large tech firms, signaling healthier market participation. While bonds experienced mid-month volatility due to inflation fears, they recovered as geopolitical tensions eased. Economic data showed mixed but generally positive trends, including steady job growth and resilient consumer spending.

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Despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and rising oil prices, stock markets have reached all-time highs. It seems investors have been able to look past the short-term noise and focus on the fundamentals. But are there other risks on the horizon?

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In April, the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all surged, driven by earnings growth and a risk-on sentiment for investors. Further, the economic updates released during the month were largely positive. The initial estimate of Q1 GDP growth came in at 2 percent annualized, up from 0.5 percent at the end of last year. The economy also added a solid 178,000 jobs in March, the strongest month of hiring in over a year. On the consumer front, we saw signs of stabilizing sentiment and solid spending growth.

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Stocks have been on a bit of a rollercoaster over the past two months. If your nature is to tune out the noise and check in occasionally, you might have missed it. After a 9 percent sell-off earlier in the year, markets quickly rebounded and have recently traded at all-time highs.

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As we enter the second month of the conflict in the Middle East, what impacts are we seeing on the markets and economy? In this month’s episode of the Market Observatory, Sam and I look beyond the headlines and focus on the fundamentals. From corporate earnings to rising inflation to recent jobs data, a balance of headwinds and tailwinds has started to emerge for investors.

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March was a challenging month for stocks, as markets pulled back due to rising geopolitical risk in the Middle East. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all fell by around 5 percent. International markets fared worse, closing down over 10 percent in March. Bonds were also down, due to rising interest rates.

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