In our Market Observatory audio series, Sam Millette and I break down the latest market and economic signals that we believe will shape the month ahead. From tariffs to big tech, we share our perspective on what’s happening now and what it could mean for investors going forward.
All Eyes on the Consumer: Is the Economic Engine Sputtering?
As the consumer goes, so goes the U.S. economy. Consumers make up roughly 70 percent of U.S. GDP. Our collective spending has powered the economy since the COVID-19 pandemic and proven wrong the 2022 and 2023 recession predictions by economists and investors. I like to call it the most telegraphed recession that never happened.
Market Thoughts for March 2025 [Video]
February was a tough month for U.S. markets. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all fell, with the Nasdaq getting hit the hardest. Despite the disappointing month, fundamentals showed signs of positive momentum, boosted by a strong jobs report and fourth-quarter earnings growth. Markets, however, still face real risks—including policy uncertainty, debt ceiling concerns, and the planned rollout of tariffs.
Policy Uncertainty Begins to Weigh on Investors
Brad here. As many of you know, I have been working on a much wider range of things here at Commonwealth, and as such, I have stepped back from a lot of the public-facing work I was doing. And that was fine as long as everything was going well. But when things become uncertain, we need someone to be able to explain what is happening—and why.
Market Thoughts for February 2025 [Video]
Markets rallied in January as improving fundamentals supported stocks. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq ended the month in positive territory, and the story was similar internationally as developed and emerging markets rebounded. The healthy economic backdrop supported strong earnings results, and the solid labor market bolstered consumer confidence. While the market rally was welcome, investors still face real risks, including policy uncertainty with tariffs and potential market volatility.
Monday Update: Initial Jobless Claims Set New Pandemic-Era Low
Last week was relatively quiet on the economic update front, with only three major data releases. The weekly initial jobless claims and new home sales reports served as highlights. This week will be busier, with reports on first-quarter GDP growth, durable goods orders, and personal income and spending.