Last week, I once again had the pleasure of presenting at a Commonwealth conference. As always, our advisors’ questions were well thought out, thought-provoking, and covered a lot of ground.
Commonwealth
Market Thoughts for May 2025 [Video]
April saw significant market fluctuations driven by tariff and interest rate concerns, with the Nasdaq showing a small gain while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones finished lower. Internationally, foreign stocks rebounded after initial sharp declines, resulting in positive overall performance for developed and emerging markets. Bond markets also experienced volatility, but the 10-year Treasury yield ended slightly lower, supporting bond prices for the fourth consecutive month. While there was earnings growth for the S&P 500, declining business and consumer sentiment raised concerns about future spending.
The Market Observatory: Tariffs and Trade Policy [Audio]
In this month’s Market Observatory episode, Sam Millette and I discuss the dominating news story of the year: tariffs and trade policy. Uncertainty has weighed on markets and investors, and the on-again, off-again nature of these policies continues to change the range of outcomes for the economy and corporate earnings.
Is It Time for Investors to Play the Long Game?
During periods of market volatility and declines, investors get concerned. They question their long-term objectives and whether they have more risk in their portfolios than they can tolerate. These are reasonable thoughts to have at times like these.
Looking at the Economic Data and Volatility in the Bond Market
Last week, the S&P 500 was up 5.7%, the strongest week for the market since November 2023. The Nasdaq rose 7.3%, which was the best week for that index since November 2022. The rally was a result of President Trump’s announcement that he was pausing reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. And while there was no relief for China and the back-and-forth escalation between the two countries, markets latched onto the good news and rallied after a tough couple of months for equity investors.
Tariffs Shock Economy and Markets
The markets are in the middle of a historic decline. Not so much in the magnitude—while we are approaching a bear market, these happen fairly regularly—but in the speed of the drop. We have rarely, if ever, seen this kind of a sudden decline, especially from close to record levels. People are nervous, of course, and understandably so. But that makes it even more important to take a step back and understand how we got here because that will inform where we are going.