Commonwealth

This week’s Fed meeting resulted in a much-anticipated interest rate reduction of 25 bps, to a range of 4 percent to 4.25 percent. This move followed a nine-month pause in its rate-cutting cycle, which began a year ago. Historically, equity markets have responded favorably to rate cuts after a pause of six months or more. But it’s been a while since we last saw this pattern. The Fed has not resumed a reduction cycle after a lag of that duration since July 2003. Markets have changed a lot since then. 

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With the latest jobs data weaker than expected, many—including the equity markets—are counting on a rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting. In this month’s episode of the Market Observatory, Sam and I discuss what’s ahead, including:

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Despite volatility early on, the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq were up low- to mid-single digits for August. These results brought markets to record highs and indicated continued investor demand for U.S. stocks. International stocks also ended the month in positive territory, as risk assets rallied. Even bonds were up, as falling interest rates supported bond prices.

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After a volatile first four months of 2025, it was a good summer for investors to go on vacation, as markets, for the most part, went up weekly. In fact, the major equity indices closed August near their all-time highs.

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In this month’s episode of the Market Observatory, Sam and I break down the latest market and economic news, including:

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As July gave way to August, an eventful news week moved markets. Corporate earnings continued to surprise to the upside. They are now showing roughly 10 percent year-over-year growth versus expectations of 4.9 percent at the start of the quarter. The first look at Q2 GDP growth came in at 3 percent, which also exceeded the consensus estimates of 2.5 percent. As an offset to this upbeat news, tariffs continue to be seen in the daily headlines. Further, July’s jobs report came in below consensus, with large downward revisions to previous months. 

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