So, what will the Fed do at today’s meeting? Almost everyone thinks it will raise rates by 75 bps, or three-quarters of a percent. Almost, in this case, means that a minority of people think the Fed will raise rates by more, like a full percentage point. But the takeaway is that everyone does expect rates to go up—and by an amount that, prior to the past couple of months, would have been shockingly large.
Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.
One of the headlines I have been asked about recently is the strong dollar. People are concerned about what it means, how it could hurt the U.S. economy, and, of course, how it will affect their investments. Good questions all.
One of the most surprising things to come out of the first half of 2022 was the walloping fixed income investors received from bonds. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index posted its worst 12-month return in its entire history, which caused many investors to shed exposures, particularly longer-term sectors.
One of the questions I have been getting recently is about consumer confidence. Some headlines are saying it is at all-time lows, while others (including me) are saying it isn’t bad at all. Since how people feel obviously affects how much they spend and, therefore, the economy, this is a big and meaningful difference. So, what is going on?