News

July was another dickens of a month—at once the best of times and the worst of times. For the financial markets, the news was largely good. The U.S. markets ended up across the board, hitting new all-time highs during the month. Earnings reports continued to substantially beat expectations. That good news, combined with dropping interest rates, drove markets higher. Bond markets continued to rally on those lower rates. From a financial perspective, July was a very good month here in the U.S.

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Today’s post is from Rob Swanke, senior fixed income analyst on our Investment Management and Research team.

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The monthly jobs report gives us a good chance to think through where we are in the recovery—and what effect the most recent developments have had. With the next report coming this Friday, what should we be looking for?

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Last week’s economic updates touched on a variety of economic sectors. Highlights included better-than-expected results for personal income and spending in June, as well as improved consumer confidence in July. This week will be packed with updates once again, with the focus on July’s business confidence and employment reports.

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July was a generally good month for the markets, with all three major U.S. indices up by more than 1 percent. But emerging markets were hit hard and ended the month down significantly. On the economic front, the data remains positive, although business and consumer confidence declined. Further, medical risks are on the rise, with the Delta variant hitting the unvaccinated population.

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The celebrated “rainbow nation” of South Africa was recently rocked by the worst violence since the nation achieved democracy and ended apartheid in 1994. Many lost their lives, the economy was hit at a time when it was already reeling under the effects of the pandemic, and its capital markets grew nervous.

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