I have been writing this blog for going on 10 years now and have been in this business for longer than that, so I have been asked a lot of questions. They tend to come in cycles. At this point, unless something like the pandemic comes along, which really is new, they also tend to be variations on a theme.
Last week saw the release of several important economic updates, with a focus on the housing sector. September’s existing home sales report was a highlight, with sales growth hitting a one-year high during the month. This will be another busy week for updates. The reports scheduled will touch on wide swaths of the economy, including a first look at third-quarter GDP growth.
Brad here. Over the past couple of weeks, I have been mentioning that I thought there’s a risk of a “heating” wave of the pandemic this fall in the northern states, following the “air conditioning” wave we saw in the southern states this past summer. I discussed it as a reasonable risk and something to keep an eye on, but my colleague and friend Pete Essele has gone well beyond that and done the work here to establish in detail both what happened over the summer and what that could mean for the fall and winter. Definitely worth a read! Great job Pete and thank you.
“If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will take you there.”—Oft-cited paraphrase of exchange between the Cheshire Cat and Alice in Lewis Carroll’s classic children’s tale, Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland
It’s been a while, but it’s time for another COVID update. Compared with a month ago, the medical situation continues to improve, which is good news, although there are reasons to be concerned over the next month or two. The economic news, however, continues to be uncertain. Job growth has slowed substantially in the past couple of months, and confidence remains below the peaks. While markets have continued to do well (as I write this, they are approaching new highs again), there has been volatility and more is likely as we approach year-end.
Following up on some of my previous posts, it seems clear that something has changed in the workplace. That somehow, the consensus that dominated both employers and workers pre-pandemic has now broken. The question is, what could that be? Will it go back to where it was? Or will this new world of labor shortages due to people choosing not to work persist?