News

One of the top headlines on the New York Times website is about how Congress is working to pass a bill to avert a government shutdown later this week, postponing it until after the midterms. Sounds like an important story! Yet when I look at both the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post, there is nothing to be seen. Strange, that!

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Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

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We are now in another downswing in the ongoing bear market. Using the S&P 500 as a measure, as I write this the markets are down 22 percent from the peak at the end of last year and just under 14 percent from the end of the most recent rally in August. This year, there have been four drops and three rallies—and we are down quite a bit. That doesn’t feel good. But, feel good or not, here we are. So, the real question is: what should we do about it? To figure that out, we need to look at two things.

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The other day, I wrote a post about how, with expectations very hawkish for the Fed, the thing to watch for in the latest Fed meeting was whether Chair Jay Powell managed to sneak in some hidden dovishness. He could have said, for example, that the Fed remains data dependent, suggesting that it would ease if the data improved. He could have said, for instance, that there were signs that inflation is moderating. He could have said a lot of things.

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So, what will the Fed do at its latest meeting? The short version is that almost everyone thinks it will raise rates by 75 bps (or 3/4 of a percent). Almost, in this case, means that a minority of people think the Fed will raise rates by more, like a full percentage point. The takeaway is that everyone does expect rates to go up—and by an amount that, prior to the past couple of months, would have been shockingly large.

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Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead. 

Read More