“We thought we had all the answers, it was the questions we had wrong.”
— U2

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In the latest episode of the Market Observatory, Sam and I take on some big questions:

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I spent my summers in a small Maine town where my mother grew up. In July and August, I was surrounded by relatives, playing whiffle ball and swimming. On the fourth of July, we would gather on my uncle’s lawn and watch the fireworks over the lake. As we reached the grand finale, we all waited for my aunt in the back to say, “Hooray for George Washington!” This has become part of our family’s fabric, passed on to the next generation. I treasure those memories and look forward to making new ones in the coming days. But before we all embark on our Independence Day holiday, let’s take a moment to reflect on what’s happening in the markets and what awaits us on the road ahead. 

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Markets continued to rally in June, capping off a solid quarter for investors. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq were up for the month and the quarter, supported by the continued cooling of trade war rhetoric. The story was similar internationally, as a solid June contributed to a positive quarter for both developed and emerging market stocks. On the economic front, updates released in June were broadly positive. The May jobs report showed continued solid hiring during the month, and consumer sentiment surged to a four-month high.

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Bonds had a solid start to 2025, with most high-quality fixed income sectors up low- to mid-single digits through the first half of the year. While stocks experienced a roller-coaster ride powered by policy uncertainty, fixed income generally held up well despite the broader market turbulence. Will it be the same story in the second half? Let’s take a closer look.

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As we enter the second half of the year, what can investors expect for the economy and markets? That’s the big question we set out to answer in this special Midyear Outlook edition of the Market Observatory. This month, Sam and I are excited to welcome Brad McMillan, chief investment officer, as our special guest.

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