February was a volatile month for stocks, with investor concerns around AI, tariffs, and trade policy. The Dow Jones was the best-performing of the large-cap U.S. markets, while international stocks were the best-performing part of the global market. On the economic side, the picture was mixed. Corporate fundamentals remain solid, but fourth-quarter real GDP slowed from the strong second- and third-quarter reports. Consumer confidence showed a slight improvement in February, while the January employment report was better than expected.

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On Friday, the Supreme Court struck down most of the tariffs the Trump administration had imposed over the past year. The question before the court was not whether the tariffs themselves were illegal, but whether the mechanism by which they were enacted was legal. By a 6-3 vote, the Justices determined that the implementation of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) went beyond the authority granted. The IEEPA allows a president to act in times of genuine national emergencies rather than to take broad trade policy actions. For example, it was enacted during the post-9/11 war on global terrorism and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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The early months of 2026 have proven interesting for investors, with no shortage of news affecting the markets. In this month’s episode of the Market Observatory, Sam and I break down an investing landscape marked by shifting risks and solid fundamentals, plus what it all means for the path ahead.

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All three major U.S. indices ended January in positive territory, despite volatility driven by geopolitical tensions and uncertainty around the Fed. International stocks outperformed, with developed and emerging markets rising amid concerns about U.S. trade and foreign policy.

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After much speculation and wild swings in market expectations, President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as his Fed chairman. If confirmed, he is expected to replace current Chair Jerome Powell in May at the end of his term.

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At a recent advisor presentation, I was asked an interesting question about this year’s consensus upbeat outlook and what could happen if it doesn’t come to fruition. Indeed, you can make the case that consensus coming into 2026 is sanguine. U.S. GDP growth is expected to be around 2 percent, with some economists forecasting even higher growth due to the benefit of fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. It is challenging to find anyone calling for a U.S. economic recession, despite concerning trends in employment and inflation. Certainly, this outlook contrasts with that of late 2022, when almost everyone was forecasting a recession in 2023. That recession never materialized. The lesson? The consensus view isn’t always right. 

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