Yesterday, in response to advisor requests, my post summarized some of my high-level thoughts about the state of the economy. To recap my take briefly, the economic risks of the pandemic are largely in the past. The economy is growing, and markets are strong. Given this environment, the risks of governmental action (notably the infrastructure spending bills) and the Fed’s policy accommodations are now bigger worries than the pandemic. In the face of these risks, can our economic growth continue? My base case is that we’re getting closer and closer to normal. So, today, I want to address how we can invest in a growing economy that faces risks of inflation, higher interest rates, and government policy changes.
News
The State of the Economy
Recently, I’ve received several requests for a high-level overview of the economy. As a blog post, this analysis is necessarily short on details, but I hope it provides a big-picture look at what I see happening in the current economic and market environment.
Despite Delta Variant Risks, Economy Remains Strong
As I wrote in yesterday’s post, we seem to have moved past the pandemic in many ways, but I realized it has been some time since I did an update on what that means. So here we are. Things are bad from a medical perspective, and the big question is whether medical conditions will continue to worsen to the point they affect the economy and markets. Right now, that does not look likely. I will be keeping an eye on the situation, however, and do another update when the answer becomes clearer.
On the Road Again
This week, I am at the first Commonwealth conference (or, indeed, any conference) since March 2020. We are being very cautious—events are outdoors, and everyone was tested on arrival. But it is the first real large face-to-face event since then.
Monday Update: Initial Jobless Claims Set New Pandemic Low
There were a number of important economic data releases last week, with a focus on housing, the July retail sales report, and the weekly initial jobless claims report. Initial unemployment claims set a new pandemic-era low during the second week of August, in an encouraging sign for the ongoing labor market recovery. This will be another busy week for updates, with July’s existing home sales, durable goods orders, and personal spending and income reports serving as highlights.
The Pandemic’s Financial Impact on Children
Last week, I happily returned to yet another tradition that was disrupted by COVID-19: back-to-school shopping. Although I did not miss paying for the rapidly changing school wardrobes of two teenage girls last year, I welcomed the feeling of normalcy the shopping routine brought to my family. COVID-19 and its associated restrictions have had a huge impact on children—educationally, socially, emotionally, and physically. We’ve all seen this. But did you know that, because of the pandemic, children may grow up to be worse off financially than their parents?
Director of Operations
Ashley has been working in the customer service field since she started her first job at age 16. For the past ten years she worked in an office setting handling accounts payable and receivable as well as some receptionist work. She is very excited to learn more about the investment field.
Alec joined Riverstone after starting out his post college career on the operations side of an international logistics company working as an account executive. Graduating with a BA in Economics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, he quickly developed a strong interest in the financial world. A lifetime resident of the Chicagoland area, Alec is an avid fan of his hometown sports teams. He is also an enthusiast of outdoor activities like fishing, camping, and hiking whenever possible.
Carol has a wide variety of experiences and has worked mainly with not-for-profit organizations. She spent 20 years in fundraising and 15 years teaching in the Illinois school system while she raised her younger children. Carol lives in Sugar Grove with her husband, Ron, and their Golden Retriever, Charley. She has four children and two grandchildren. When she’s not working, Carol enjoys spending time with friends and family, running, fishing, bible study, and watching her grandchildren play sports.
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