This was the week that the economy showed real signs of slowing down—and markets cheered! All right, it wasn’t quite that simple. But that captures pretty much what happened, so let’s look at the details.
News
Digesting the Fed
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week and voted unanimously to hold rates steady for the second consecutive meeting. This leaves its policy range at 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent. After a historic run where the committee increased that range by 5.25 percent over the course of 11 meetings, no change can certainly feel like a change. So, what are the driving forces behind the continued pause? Let’s look at some of the details the FOMC is keeping its eyes on, as well as what we should be paying attention to moving forward.
Market Thoughts for November 2023 [Video]
U.S. indices were down for the third consecutive month, with the Nasdaq doing the worst. International markets also pulled back, and fixed income was down. Despite the market performance, job growth remained healthy, consumer income and spending grew, and retail sales increased.
Bear Market or Intermediate Correction?
In my last blog post on whether markets might rally by year-end, I detailed a few technical indicators that suggested taking a cautious approach, as well as a reason for potential optimism. Today, I’d like to provide updates on two of those indicators, introduce new data, and wrap up with some thoughts on where we go from here.
Economic Release Snapshot: GDP Growth Accelerates in Third Quarter
Each week, we break down the latest U.S. economic reports, including what the results mean for the overall health of the economy. Here, you will find how economists’ forecasts compare with actual results, key takeaways to consider, as well as a list of what’s on tap for the week ahead.
What Mattered This Week? Markets Kept Dropping
This week was about the markets, which kept dropping even as the economic news continued to be good. Growth last quarter was well above expectations, at almost 5 percent, and personal spending increased for the sixth month in a row. Despite that good news, markets pulled back again, with the S&P 500 looking like it will slide into a correction, down more than 10 percent from the most recent peak in August.