My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Market Risk Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!
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Economic Risk Factor Update: February 2022
My colleague Sam Millette, manager, fixed income on Commonwealth’s Investment Management and Research team, has helped me put together this month’s Economic Risk Factor Update. Thanks for the assist, Sam!
Looking Back at the Markets in January and Ahead to February 2022
January was a terrible month. Worries about economic damage from the Omicron wave were combined with the Fed’s perceived decision to start raising interest rates based on inflation levels at a 40-year high. Stocks were knocked down around the world. Tech stocks got hit especially hard, but even fixed income was down. It really was a terrible month.
Monday Update: January Jobs Report Surges Past Expectations
Last week’s important economic data releases included January’s business confidence and employment reports. The January jobs report was a highlight, as it showed the economy added significantly more jobs than expected throughout the end of 2021 and start of 2022. Among the updates to come this week, the focus will be on international trade, consumer prices, and consumer sentiment.
Strangest Jobs Report Ever?
Wow. I have rarely been so wrong about an economic report—or so glad to be wrong. And it wasn’t just me. The range of expected values for today’s jobs report was roughly between -400,000 and +250,000. Everyone was very wrong as it came in at +467,000. This was a much, much larger-than-expected gain, and it clearly shows there is something going on that analysts are missing.
Signs Say Terrible Jobs Report Ahead
The official jobs report comes out this Friday. Expectations are for another slowdown, with about 175,000 jobs added, down from 199,000 in December. With everything that is going on, especially the number of people who have the Omicron variant and are presumably not at work, that would be a great result. Unfortunately, the real number is likely to be well below that and will probably be negative—maybe significantly so.
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